Driftwood is categorically not getting built by 2026. Souki describes the all too familiar narrative, that Europe is desperate for LNG supplies. B.Riley initiated on TELL with a buy rating and a target price of $8 in July. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). One more deal of this size supports 2-plant FID (final investment decision)." Tellurian has said the first phase of Driftwood would cost about $16.8 billion and produce about 16.5 MTPA of LNG. By the start of 2020, several LNG export. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies, and communities, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) provides natural gas price transparency and key news, insights and data for the North American energy markets. And that Tellurian could then further increase its total volume. What Souki doesn't address is that Tellurian was expecting to sign its Final Investment Decision in the summer of 2022. Tellurian dangles a carrot to investors, $400 million of EBITDA in 2023. Particularly noting that in this higher interest rate and inflationary environment, there are too many cross currents and this would not be prudent. Tellurian CEO Octvio Simes said the company "continues to execute on our plan to market Driftwood LNG volumes on indices that our customers want.". I'll address this momentarily. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies, and communities, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) provides natural gas price transparency and key news, insights and data for the North American energy markets. It will source upstream gas production from the Haynesville Basin in East Texas and Northwest Louisiana, which will be then be transported by the Driftwood pipeline to the Driftwood LNG export terminal and liquefaction facility in southwest Louisiana. The company had previously announced it hoped to achieve commerciality in the first quarter of 2022. read more, Tellurian Executive Chairman Charif Souki said in a video this week that the company remained "highly confident we will start construction this summer and issue notice to proceed to Bechtel in the first quarter of next year." LNG To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Saudi Arabia to Use $110 Billion Gas Field for Blue Hydrogen Plans to add two more plants would bring the total projects capacity to a whopping 27.6 MTPA for a total cost of US$30 billion. Under the now-terminated agreement, TotalEnergies "had agreed to purchase, and Tellurian had agreed to issue and sell" 19.9 million shares of Tellurian stock in exchange for a cash purchase price of $10.064 per share, subject to the satisfaction of certain closing conditions. 2023 Natural Gas Intelligence. One of the major catalysts has been the overall buoyant LNG prices due to the ongoing recovery across the world. Here's the thing that a lot of investors have likely forgotten about. Click here to request a free trial. FID is the point in the capital project planning process when the decision to make major financial commitments is taken. Until that moment arrives, particularly in the current investment environment where investors are noticeably worried about a whole range of macro considerations, such as inflation, interest rates, spikes in natural gas prices and more, investors will have no interest in substantially supporting Tellurian's vision. Bulls may disagree with this, but what bulls will agree with is that this stock is not for the faint-hearted. Tellurian is actively pursuing additional upstream acreage. Over the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ConocoPhillips 2021 earnings has been raised by 22.5%. Screen for heightened risk individual and entities globally to help uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks. Tellurian sold off 40% in the past month. Please. Some call it the Internet of Money and predict it could change the way money works forever. FID Also known as: Final investment decision FID is the point in the capital project planning process when the decision to make major financial commitments is taken. $6 billion from equity. Tellurian had 96 million outstanding shares at the end of 2016 compared to 470 million currently. Tellurian then secured a third SPA with Shell in July 2021. Under its commercial framework, Driftwood Phase 1 is expected to generate around US$3.7 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) per year. Indeed, what can go wrong? Deep Value Returns' Marketplace continues to rapidly grow. Management did not say in the companys earnings release whether it would curb drilling activity because of depressed prices as other producers are doing across the country. All rights reserved. |, Related topics: Souki discusses that inflation and rapidly rising interest rates have made raising debt on anything but the most onerous terms impossible. Tellurian has been working toward a final investment decision on Driftwood for years. 3/1/2023. The concept is largely unproven in the U.S. export market, where deals have largely been tied to Henry Hub for terms of 20 years or more. Up until the Final Investment Decision takes place, investors are left guessing as to just how much equity will be diluted. But investors crave FID details. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Members of Deep Value Returns get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. "The Total agreements were terminated because they are not consistent with the commercial agreements that Driftwood has reached with other counterparties," Tellurian said in a federal filing on Monday. Yet another problem. Reality got in the way. Chairman Souki addresses the matter on a YT video. Souki went on to argue that there could be leaks of LNG or gas that would leave the company over-exposed and having to pay back more than the contract was worth to make the contract whole. This would put the stock priced at somewhere around 3x its 2026 cash flows. The most comprehensive solution to manage all your complex and ever-expanding tax and compliance needs. At the FID point, major equipment orders are placed, and contracts are signed for EPC. Responsive Menu. As part of the deal with Tellurian, Total is making a $500 million equity investment in the Driftwood LNG project near Lake Charles, La. This I already discussed in my previous bullish article. Tellurian ( NYSE: TELL) yesterday announced that in 2023 it's likely to see $400 million of EBITDA from one of its wholly-owned subsidiaries. The problem here is that, aside from. Consequently, Tellurian would absolutely need to be making around $3 billion in cash flows to make this investment compelling. After pushing back the final investment decision (FID) for its Louisiana-based Driftwood LNG plant from 2021 to 2022, liquefied natural gas (LNG) startup, Tellurian, now expects to commence construction in April. Tellurian is based in Houston, Texas, and its common stock is listed on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol "TELL." | After pushing back the final investment decision (FID) for its Louisiana-based Driftwood LNG plant from 2021 to 2022, liquefied natural gas (LNG) startup, Tellurian, now expects to commence construction in April. That would mean that for Tellurian to get hold of its much-needed $6 billion via equity, its shareholders would need to be diluted by approximately 7x. Tellurian is in a strong financial position with substantial liquidity after taking on expense reduction activities and significant debt reduction measures in 2020, and subsequent prepayments in 2021, CEO Octvio Simes said last week after the company released 2020 results. Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. jamison.cocklin@naturalgasintel.com, In our continuing effort to stay ahead of the changes in physical flows of the North American natural gas market, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is amending the spot market price tables that appear in NGIs various data services by adding one (1) new location, making changes to three (3) existing indexes, and ceasing to publish. WARNING: Any stocks that you feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility. Tellurian said that it has received most of the needed permits required for construction and operation with around 30% of the engineering already complete thanks to US$150 million of prior investments. Tellurian shares were trading around $4.42 per share, up about 0.4%, on Monday afternoon. If indeed Tellurian did manage to raise $8 billion of debt, its interest payments would be at least 8%. But looking beyond the tall tales of Driftwood, there's also Tellurian's core business. . Other major company-specific developments have been the signing of its long-term contracts for uptake of potential production from its Driftwood project. As an experienced professional, I highlight the best stocks to grow your savings: stocks that deliver strong gains. Tellurian also has its core business! I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Follow the topics you want and receive the daily emails. And the debt markets would not even consider $1 billion. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Not only has Tellurian struggled to get its Final Investment Decision (''FID'') going for months. | I argue that if Tellurian ends up funding Driftwood with 80% through equity, shareholders are paying approximately 3x its 2026 cash flows from operations. Tellurian has been working toward a final investment decision on Driftwood, which the company said it thinks will cost $28.9 billion, for years. The company has secured enough projects to support the first phase of the project. A win for Europe, as they crave lower energy. read more. In June, TELL signed a long-term contract with Vitol for 3 mtpa. Is this happening to you frequently? I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. And looking out to next year, Tellurian is expected to make around $400 million of EBITDA. So is there any hope left for Tellurian? Amid the Driftwood progress and the overall price environment, what's the Tellurian (TELL) stock forecast for 2025? NGI All News Access. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Tellurian Inc. has delayed a final investment decision (FID) on its proposed Driftwood LNG export terminal by one year to 2021 and may drop plans to. Tellurian shares soared around 24% on the news to their highest since February 2020, putting the stock up more than 120% during the past 10 days. The first phase would have a nameplate production capacity of 11 million mt/y per year of LNG. THANK YOU for all the help that everyone has so kindly offered me, in how to think about businesses from different perspectives. The industry leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals. We are all working together to compound returns. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Meanwhile, the delays in investment decisions are primarily blamed upon the insufficient number of customers signing long-term deals needed to finance the multibillion-dollar facilities. In May, Tellurian agreed to supply 3 mtpa of LNG over a 10-year period to Gunvor Singapore. Tellurian Inc. TELL terminated agreements with TotalEnergies TTE related to its Driftwood Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production and export terminal in Louisiana, according to a securities filing. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. 2023, Nasdaq, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. [2023 Natural Gas Price Outlook: How will the energy industry continue to evolve in 2023? Each deal is worth about $12 billion in revenue over the contract period. A story that's going to be a win-win for all parties. By using this Site or clicking on "OK", you consent to the use of cookies. Hess earnings for 2021 are expected to rise 116.2% year over year. A wealth of resources for individual investors is available at www.zacks.com. However, the company still needs to find gas feedstock and finances for the terminal. Days before the Shell and Vitol deals were canceled, Tellurian announced that it had withdrawn a high-yield bond sale, citing the impacts of inflation and uncertainty in the debt market. This means that investors simply aren't buying into Souki's vision. When the symbol you want to add appears, add it to Watchlist by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return. The signing of the Vitol and Gunvor deals helped push Tellurian stock up about 250% so far this year. Its stock has gained 80.3% compared with the industrys 10.8% growth. Credit Suisse analyst Spiro Dounis said Tellurian's rate of commercial progress has accelerated "from virtually nothing to once per week. Tellurian is reasonably well capitalized, with very roughly $400 million of net cash. Tellurian wanted all potential investors to be focused on the holy grail story. My Marketplace highlights a portfolio of undervalued investment opportunities - stocks with rapid growth potential, driven by top quality management, while these stocks are cheaply valued. Tellurian stock has risen by nearly 190 percent YTD due to several positive developments. some value. That being said, what Souki doesn't discuss in the video is that the contract between Tellurian and Gunvor has only been extended by 31 days to the end of January. But more recently, Tellurian also saw two crucial contracts get canceled. July 12 (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Tellurian Inc (TELL.O) said on Monday it terminated a stock and LNG purchase agreement with France's TotalEnergies SE (TTEF.PA) related to Tellurian's proposed Driftwood LNG export plant in Louisiana. Not signings. Tellurian reported a full-year net loss of $49.8 million (minus 9 cents/share), compared to a net loss of $114.7 million (28 cents) in 2021. As a reference point, Cheniere is also priced very roughly at 4x next year's EBITDA! Over the past decade, it has made growing its natural gas trading, production, and supply business a key priority. From the start, Tellurian has been a story stock. But does this mean it won't get built at all? If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Click here to request a trial. Please. Tellurian said it planned to make a final investment decision on its $30 billion Driftwood project, which includes pipelines and production fields in addition to the liquefaction plant, in. Sign in to get the best natural gas news and data. Headquartered in Houston, TX, Tellurian is a liquefied natural gas developer. 2 min read. Browse an unrivalled portfolio of real-time and historical market data and insights from worldwide sources and experts. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. Zacks->. Tellurian Inc. is edging closer toward a final investment decision on its Louisiana liquefied natural gas terminal after finalizing a deal with Total SA this week to increase the French oil major . Some analysts interviewed said the end of the TotalEnergies share purchase agreement could free Tellurian to sign other deal to sell LNG; the company has reportedly been in talks with other companies to sell the super-cooled fuel. Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the worlds largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day. The company currently carries a Zack Rank #3 (Hold). The focus of the Tellurian ( TELL) investment case is on management's ability to sign long-term LNG contracts which underpin project financing; after which the company can take final. Tellurian said in 2021 after it signed all three deals that the projects first phase had been commercialized and a final investment decision (FID) was expected in 1Q2022. To get to Final Investment Decision, Tellurian needs to secure additional natural gas assets in the Haynesville shale. In 2019, Tellurian signed share purchase and equity contribution agreements with TotalEnergies, wherein the latter agreed to invest $500 million in the proposed Driftwood LNG facility. Dow and X-energy to build U.S. Gulf Coast nuclear demonstration plant, Oil settled up as rising supplies face Chinese demand hopes, Reporting by Scott DiSavino and Jessica Resnick-Ault; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Leslie Adler, Greta Thunberg detained by Norway police during pro-Sami protest, Western US cities vote to move ahead with novel nuclear power plant, Exclusive: Biden administration to move on Midwest ethanol-blended gasoline rule this week -sources, South African scientists use bugs in war against water hyacinth weed, How Elon Musk has missed his targets on delivering affordable cars, Delta pilots ratify new contract, raise 'the bar' for rival airlines, Saudi, British defence ministers sign agreement on Riyadhs participation in FCAS - SPA, Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionals. Four of the analysts have a buy rating, while three have a sell rating on the stock. Dow and X-energy to build U.S. Gulf Coast nuclear demonstration plant, Oil settled up as rising supplies face Chinese demand hopes, Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel, Greta Thunberg detained by Norway police during pro-Sami protest, Western US cities vote to move ahead with novel nuclear power plant, Exclusive: Biden administration to move on Midwest ethanol-blended gasoline rule this week -sources, South African scientists use bugs in war against water hyacinth weed, How Elon Musk has missed his targets on delivering affordable cars, Delta pilots ratify new contract, raise 'the bar' for rival airlines, Saudi, British defence ministers sign agreement on Riyadhs participation in FCAS - SPA, Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionals. DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. Amid a record stretch of U.S. LNG contracting activity last year that moved many other projects closer to FID, Tellurian pivoted to searching for equity partners. Last years loss included a $81.1 million impairment of upstream properties. Gas producer . Another big fear for investors could be the dilution of their holdings. Tellurian has yet to secure financing for the entirety of the Driftwood LNG project. Industry leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals debt markets would be! List of exchanges and delays financial commitments is taken wo n't get built at all the most comprehensive solution manage... Are too many cross currents and this would put the stock feedstock and finances for the terminal and out. It expresses my own opinions or clicking on `` OK '', you consent to the recovery! Forgotten about offered me, in how to think about businesses from different.. 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